Peru's exports would reach $55 000 million in 2021 and would grow by 33%, projected Edgar Vásquez Vela, director of the Economics and Business Research Center of the Exporters Association (Adex). This amount could be the highest in the history of Peruvian foreign trade, as it would surpass the previous record achieved in 2018, whose figure reached $47 500 million.
During his participation in the VI International Symposium on Relations between Latin America and Asia Pacific, Vasquez explained that traditional exports, concentrated in the trade of minerals, fish flour and fish oil, would surpass the record registered in 2011, as they would total $38 600 million this year, which would mean a growth of 35%.
In the case of non-traditional exports, which are associated with higher added value, they are expected to exceed the 2019 record. This year they will total $16 200 million, an increase of 28%. This result would show that non-traditional shipments have been the most resilient to the impact of COVID-19, Vasquez said at the event organized by the School of Business, the Office of the Associate Dean of International Business at Universidad del Pacífico and the Chair of the Asia-Pacific Alliance.
"Peruvian foreign trade is obviously marked by its dependence on commodities but if we look at the non-traditional ones, they have recovered faster. Likewise, the negative impact was less profound than in the traditional sector, and I believe that there is more potential precisely because Peru has open doors for this type of product", said the also former Minister of Foreign Trade and Tourism during his keynote lecture entitled “Situación y perspectivas de las exportaciones peruanas” ("Situation and prospects of Peruvian exports").
Vásquez explained that this increase in figures is in line with what happens in the global trade scenario. In other words, there is a global context in which, after the crisis caused by the pandemic and even with logistical difficulties, the countries are undergoing a faster recovery process than expected.
Lower growth for 2022
In contrast to expectations for this year, the outlook for Peruvian export growth is lower for 2022. However, according to estimates by the Central Reserve Bank, domestic shipments would still remain above the Latin American average due to their high integration with the world.
"Peru is among the top 5 countries with the greatest global integration and negotiated liberalization. We have 22 free trade agreements that link us with 58 countries in the world, as well as a very rich negotiation and deepening agenda," said Vásquez. The director of Adex added that this preferential access gives us comparative advantages over other economies; however, it is still necessary to implement internal reforms to continue moving forward.
In this regard, Vasquez projects that traditional exports by 2022 will reach a growth of 4.1%, with $40 200 million; and non-traditional exports, 7.1%, with $17 400 million.
Event to address the crisis
The VI International Symposium on Relations between Latin America and Asia Pacific, held on October 14 and 15, included two keynote speeches: in addition to the one by Vásquez, Hari Seshasayee, ProColombia Advisor for India and the Middle East, presented the paper “La relación entre la India y los países de la Alianza del Pacífico desde el punto de vista de la diplomacia económica” ("The relationship between India and the countries of the Pacific Alliance from the point of view of economic diplomacy").
The main theme of the event was “América Latina y Asia en la perspectiva de un panorama internacional incierto” ("Latin America and Asia in the perspective of an uncertain international outlook"), which was addressed in 4 round tables on economics and international trade, business internationalization, international relations and sustainability. During the two days of activities, 1202 people attended, including students, professors, public policy managers, the export sector and general public linked to the international world.